Christmas in July was last week, but that's not why the hashtag #WinterIsComing has been popular among Pirates fans and bloggers on Twitter in recent days.
No, the cryptic phrase refers to the fact that Pittsburgh's pitch-to-contact starting staff drastically outperformed almost all relevant advanced metrics during the season's first half. A paucity of strikeouts, a low home run-to-fly ball ratio and a high strand rate for most of the Bucs' rotation suggested that their surprising run prevention acumen was about to dry up.
If a cruel winter is indeed on the way for the staggering Pirates, now losers of five in a row and seven of eight to fall to 54-54, Tuesday night was the equivalent of a freak November blizzard. Starter Kevin Correia, who rode tremendous run support on the road to an All-Star Game appearance, surrendered four prodigious home runs to the fifth-place Chicago Cubs in the Pirates' 11-6 loss at PNC Park.
Correia was yanked in the fourth inning after giving up eight runs, leaving sabermetrically-inclined Pirates fans to hope that the veteran's regression to the mean occurred in the span of little more than an hour on the North Shore. While Correia is nowhere near as feeble as he looked Tuesday, he's still not likely to replicate a first half in which he helped lead a rotation that had little to no positive expectations entering the season.
Following three-plus months of unforeseen competence, it seems the only way to go for Correia, Paul Maholm, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald and Charlie Morton to go is down, although that's no reason not to try to extend the likely aberration for a few more weeks.
Morton, who was lit up by Philadelphia in his previous start and will pitch Wednesday, has already been a poster child for the threatening winter this season. Until early June, Morton was showing the potential to be the staff ace with his newfound two-seam fastball that reminded many of Roy Halladay's repertoire.
Charlie's mechanics (and perhaps his early-season good fortune) went sour as the summer heated up, however. He has still yet to rediscover the control of that electric sinker that had National League hitters perplexed in April and May.
To be fair, Morton likely also rode some luck to his promising start; his opponents' batting average on balls in play was unsustainably low and could simply be evening out at this point.
(For a more thorough exploration of advanced metrics as they relate to the Pirates, check out fellow City of Champions staff writer Mike Shaeffer's future work on this same site and on Twitter.)
Ironically, after the pitching staff carried the Pirates to first place in the NL Central at various points last month, the offense has actually come alive during the last three losses, plating 14 runs and hitting six homers while Bucco hurlers have gotten shelled.
The hope was that the offense, augmented by trade acquisitions Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick and the pending return of injured regulars Ryan Doumit and Alex Presley, would awaken as the run prevention regressed in August and September.
But if the coming winter for Bucco pitchers turns out to be drastic, even a Lumber Company-caliber attack might not be enough to keep the Pirates on track for a winning season and exciting September baseball.
While attending last Sunday's Pirates-Cardinals game at PNC Park, my brother said something that I initially brushed off nonchalantly.
As the two teams headed to extra innings tied at 3, he said, "Baseball should allow ties after a certain amount of innings."
To be clear, I don't agree with adding a third column to the standings, and I told him as such. But after the Bucs and Braves drudged through 19 innings last night, I've begun to think that an inning threshold might be a good idea to preserve the quality of competition.
As last night's game crept toward its unsatisfying conclusion (more on that later), the action in extras was at times much less than compelling. Sure, there were chances constructed and jams escaped, but to the naked eye it appeared fatigue was mitigating what should've been a pulsating battle between two National League postseason hopefuls.
I'm thinking if the game was suspended after, say, 12 or 15 innings, the two teams would be more than happy to return this evening to complete the contest after a night's rest. After the suspended game was finished, the day's/night's scheduled tilt would start immediately afterward.
Of course, if the suspended game is the last of a series, that would complicate matters. However, as is the case with rescheduling rainouts, dates and times could be found to complete the game if necessary to division or wild card races.
All of which brings me to Tuesday night's home plate umpire Jerry Meals. I'm certain that Meals would've seen the controversial play involving Pirates catcher Mike McKenry and Atlanta's Julio Lugo a little more clearly without the wear of seven hours of baseball weighing on his mind and body.
The most offensive part of last night's Pirates loss (aside from manager Clint Hurdle's absurd bunting fascination) was that it's highly unlikely Meals calls Lugo safe if the game hadn't extended beyond all reasonable expectations.
Quite simply, the subconscious desire to end the game and head back to the hotel got the better of Meals. Fatigue makes cowards of us all, as Vince Lombardi once said, and Meals was afraid to make the right call.
Here's hoping baseball can be reasonable and not expect perfect judgments from its arbiters once games turn into marathons.
Former Sports Haze Pittsburgh colleague Matt Shetler and I talk Pittsburgh sports every week on the Three Rivers, One Show podcast.
This week's edition features heavy Pirates talk, including their needs at the trade deadline and the return of Pedro Alvarez to the lineup. The Steelers' potential course of action as the NFL lockout comes to an end is another prominent topic on the show, which was recorded Monday evening.
This week, my wife and I will end our two-year stay in Youngstown, Ohio, as we will be moving back to Grand Rapids, Mich., where we began our married lives three years ago.
We arrived in Aug. 2009 for job reasons (mine) and are leaving for job reasons (hers), and I'll always regret that it didn't work out here in northeast Ohio. Pittsburgh is about an hour's drive away, as is my hometown of Weirton, W.Va., making both destinations accessible, yet not close enough to spend a ton of time at either.
In a way that distance is symbolic, because while the location was almost ideal for me, the reality is this situation never came close to playing out as I imagined it when I took a media relations/broadcasting position with the USHL's Youngstown Phantoms two summers ago.
After a tumultuous year with the dysfunctional Phantoms franchise, I left the team in hopes of finding something better. There were a couple close calls last summer (and I'm still waiting on some other pending opportunities), but my wife and I recently decided it was time to prioritize her work and head back to Michigan.
It's been tough over the last few months knowing that in all likelihood I was about to move several hundred miles away from my family and my favorite city, but I tried to make the most of it with frequent trips home and to Pittsburgh.
Attending Pirates games was a large benefit to living in Youngstown; although the journey wasn't the easiest to make, especially during the week, I managed to make about 20-25 appearances at PNC Park in the last 24 months.
Included in those twentysomething games were six in this season of rekindled #BuccoFever, with the most recent being yesterday afternoon with my wife, dad and brother. It was during that Sunday afternoon tilt (my favorite kind) that I experienced something new.
Two weeks prior, the Pirates defeated the Cubs 9-1 with my brother and me in attendance at PNC, giving them an over-.500 record at the all-star break. For the first time, we watched a game of significance at the 11-year-old Best Ballpark in America(TM).
But even though that afternoon was goosebump-inducing, it was still missing something: namely, an opponent that was battling the Bucs for first place in the National League Central. The Cardinals entered the frame this weekend to provide that final piece to the puzzle.
To put it simply, it was all there yesterday, including a stifling combination of heat and humidity which added an atmosphere of attrition to the proceedings.
Actually, I should mention that something was missing on this Sunday of new frontiers. The Pirates offense, hamstrung by injuries and a lineup-wide dearth of power, was only half-present. Still, the home side managed to tie St. Louis three different times after falling behind by a single run.
Starter Charlie Morton provided some unlikely offense (a sacrifice fly) to counteract his lack of control (five walks). Recent free-agent signing Jason Grilli bailed Morton out with 1 2/3 innings of staunch relief, followed by single scoreless frames from Chris Resop, Joel Hanrahan and Joe Beimel to give the Pirates an opportunity to walk off with a win in the bottom of the 10th.
Xavier Paul's improbable one-out infield single gave the 35,000-plus some hope, a deserved award for enduring more than three hours of oppressive temperatures. That hope turned to delirious expectation when Paul swiped second base and took third on Cards catcher Gerald Laird's throwing error.
Chase d'Arnaud, who has been overmatched at times during his first month in the majors, was at the plate needing a medium-depth fly ball to keep the Pirates from being swept at home for the first time all year in a three-game series.
d'Arnaud delivered just that with a liner to center, his second RBI of the game on top of solid defensive play at third. The Pirates had won a game against a contending division rival in dramatic fashion.
It doesn't sound like much, but after over a decade of fruitless fandom, it was the fulfillment of years of personal dreams and expectations. My Pirates are in first place, the fourth day of the last 10 such a statement could be made.
They are still long shots to make the postseason, as the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds all figure to hang tough through the final two months, but for this fan of the Bucs, being on hand for Sunday's triumph was the best possible going-away present.
After a three-week hiatus, co-hosts Matt Gajtka and Larry Snyder are back with a summertime edition of the Gospel of Hockey.
Writer/blogger Ryan Clark of The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead makes his encore appearance to discuss, amont other things, the unrest on the college hockey landscape. Who will be the winners and losers when NCAA reshuffling begins?
Also, the boys will explore recent NHL news, including the new Winnipeg Jets and the current state of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets.
Pirates fans have ample reason to be antsy at the moment, no matter how many years of losing we may have personally endured. (I hopped on board in 1998.) After all, the Bucs are tied for the NL Central lead with nine weeks to go and 10 days until the non-waiver trade deadline.
Understandably, the public's desire is great to add a weapon or two for the season's final two months.
Pushing this urgency to a higher level are the next 10 games on the schedule, starting with tonight's (Friday's) collision with the third-place Cardinals at PNC Park. Following this weekend's series with St. Louis - just one game back of the Pirates and Brewers for first - Pittsburgh takes to the road for four games in Atlanta and three in Philadelphia to close out July.
With this gauntlet leading up to the trade deadline, naturally there have been rampant calls for general manager Neal Huntington to move quickly to augment the Bucco roster before the team takes on the best of the NL East.
But beyond the Brewers' dealing for a glorified setup man in Francisco Rodriguez during the all-star break, the trade market has been very quiet in recent weeks. It's apparent that teams interested in being "buyers" are holding out until deadline pressures lower the asking prices for players available on the market.
This delay shouldn't make Pirates fans uneasy. In fact, it should have the contrary effort for a couple of reasons:
1. Huntington isn't simply taking the first deal available. There is much (deserved) speculation about how the Pirates' fourth-year GM will handle his first trade deadline as a playoff contender. The fact that Huntington hasn't let his eagerness to deal get the better of him so far is an encouraging sign.
2. Despite the ominous stretch currently upon the Pirates, there will still be two months left of baseball after July 31. Even if Pittsburgh goes 3-7 or 2-8 against the Cards, Braves and Phillies, they will still very likely be in a position to make a run at the Central crown. Obviously, any help the Buccos could get over the next 10 days would be welcomed, but the season will not be determined by the first week of August.
Looking further ahead, the entire month of August figures to be grueling for the Pirates, with home series versus the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers and road series at San Francisco, Milwaukee and St. Louis lurking in the next five weeks.
With that in mind, it wouldn't be prudent for Huntington to rush into anything. Any new players are likely to make their presences felt more significantly in the final 56 games, as opposed to the next 10.
On the other hand, the sooner that rehabbing third baseman Pedro Alvarez gets called back up, the better. The Pirates are presently trotting out replacement level offense at 3B, and an upgrade with no tangible cost is waiting at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Sure, Pedro may struggle as the season wears on, but for a team near the bottom of MLB in slugging and runs created, not using the organization's best power threat is inexcusable.
Assuming Alvarez is completely healthy, he needs to be working out his problems while simultaneously helping the big club.